Ten years after the UK embarked on a rushed referendum that polarised the country and unleashed chaos, a caution is issued from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating upheavals for which no one is ready.
That is the message from two prominent journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a potentially tense and monumental public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can build support very quickly," the commentator remarked. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our region remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have examined the governmental, economic and cultural reasons for any governmental shift in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the topic with a series of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles everyone, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a binary, ambiguous question whose results have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extremely divided society where the losing side are not reconciled to defeat and the victorious side lack clarity exactly what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would approve.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim such a time is approaching, and a group called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and unionists downplay the likelihood, leaving it unclear when or if there will be a national vote.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has obscured the absence of serious debate, said McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the idea but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to achieve it is mostly absent. A lot has taken place in universities but very few government figures or activists want to engage even with the fundamentals. For instance, what sort of state should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the book, none of the commentators endorses unification or the status quo. They writes two articles that seek impartiality in detailing the rationale for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, marshalling economic and social data, historical precedents and structural examples.
Arguments encompass identity markers, levies, medical care, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to educate and provoke conversation.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there hasn't quite been a discussion," commented the writer. "Debate indicates an recognition of the concept that there might be reasonable perspectives on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens claim they support unity but oppose greater financial contributions or implementing a new flag to reflect pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland must determine what the offer from nationalist groups is aside from just saying: 'We want a united Ireland and we value you'," remarked O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist thinks a national vote in his generation is probable and that it could happen abruptly. "It is possible just a reckless or a bad or a incompetent secretary of state who states: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, valid points, he said. "Somebody will win in this matter and the other side will in the end not succeed but all factions has got something to learn from the alternative arguments."
Appeal for More Extensive Debate
Westminster needed to join the debate, said the analyst. "This is about your state. It's a British question just as much as it is an Irish question."
